Gas Prices As Karma

It's finally settling in on most American motorists that the days of artificially low gasoline prices are gone for good.

Now that they're faced with the stark realization that prices probably will never again fall below $3 per gallon and likely will continue to rise over the long haul, some motorists are having buyer's remorse about their SUVs and Hummers. Business watchers report that so far this year, compact and sub-compact vehicles account for one in every five automobiles purchased in the United States, up from one in eight in recent years.

Still, modern American society is largely based around the personal automobile — including subsides for oil companies and massive amounts of local, state and federal cash pumped into road construction — which means the nation's options for dealing with skyrocketing prices are more limited than in places like Europe and Japan, where a wider variety of transit options are available.

The average gas price per gallon in Greater Cincinnati is $3.59 today, and was $3.65 earlier this week; in San Francisco, it recently rose as high as $4.10.

If area residents had been more focused on the long-term a few years ago, we’d be halfway to having a comprehensive alternate transportation system in place by now.

In November 2002 voters overwhelmingly defeated a proposed $2.6 billion light rail system for Hamilton County. The measure to increase the county’s sales tax by a half-cent was rejected 68-32 percent.

If approved, a light rail system would’ve been built in phases that ultimately would’ve stretched from Northern Kentucky to Kings Island, along with funding $112 million in expanded bus service throughout the region. New bus hubs were planned in Blue Ash, Forest Park, Loveland, Milford, Northgate and West Chester.

Under that plan, it would’ve taken four years to do the engineering work needed for the light rail system’s first phase, from downtown to Kings Island. The segment would’ve been constructed between 2006 and 2014, when it would open for business.

A little-known aspect of the Metro Moves plan called for implementing a streetcar system downtown and in the uptown area around the University of Cincinnati and area hospitals. That system would’ve become operational in 2006 — two years ago.

Coulda, woulda, shoulda.

With gasoline prices moving ever upward, some urban planners think it’s inevitable that some sort of commuter rail system will be built here someday. If true, the 2002 sales tax defeat only means the completion date is even further off and the total cost will be higher, due to inflation.

Besides offering relief to motorists, supporters of a countywide light rail system believe it would serve as an economic development tool, prompting revitalization in the neighborhoods and towns along the route, as well as help slow down increases in traffic congestion and air pollution.

Also, light rail would improve access for poor, inner-city residents to jobs in fast-growing suburbs such as Blue Ash and Mason, they said.

Under the previous proposal, the routes would’ve been built over a 30-year period and include a line connecting downtown Cincinnati and Blue Ash along Interstate 71, and also a line along I-75 from downtown to Sharonville.

The 2002 proposal also included east-west lines along the Eastern Corridor, another along I-74, and a line connecting Northside to Xavier University

A few elected officials — like Cincinnati City Councilwoman Roxanne Qualls — hold out hope that light rail eventually will happen in Greater Cincinnati, but most politicians have shied away from the issue since the ballot defeat.

It will be interesting to see how political attitudes shift over the next few years as the burden increases on motorists.

— Kevin Osborne

Comments

[Mark Miller]

According to SORTA:
http://www.go-metro.com/pdfs/2005_CAFR.pdf
Metro spent (pg28) $86.4 miilion to drive 139 million passenger miles in 2005. Therefore it costs them 62 cents to transport one passenger one mile.

IRS publishes a similar rate for all the costs of operating a car. In 2005 it was 40.8 cents per mile (http://www.irs.gov/newsroom/article/0,,id=147423,00.html). Today it's 50.5 cents.

For another comparison, Portland's Trimet spent $386 million (http://trimet.org/pdfs/publications/TriMet_2007_Annual_Report.pdf pg14) in 2006 to deliver 402 million passenger miles by rail & bus(http://trimet.org/pdfs/ridership/busmaxstat.pdf pg1). That's 96 cents per mile.

There are plenty of good reasons to invest in public transportation, like giving people who can't afford cars a opportunity to get to their jobs. But don't delude yourself into thinking cost is one of those reasons. Private cars are always cheaper.

[jane when i order coffee]

how much tax money does it cost to maintain intensively trafficked roads and bridges? how much money goes to healthcare for illness related to air quality, or even obesity, because there's no need to walk anywhere in a city built for cars? 50.5 cents a mile is still a subsidized number.

while i endorse the more egalitarian elements of public transit (and have no doubt that a large part of the vote against light rail came from richies not wanting people in over-the-rhine to have the means to get to their neighborhoods; people on 55wkrc talkshows would call in and admit as much) there are more reasons to invest in public transportation than charity.