Gas: It's Only Going to Get Worse

This week's issue of CityBeat examines Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman's interest in building an electric-powered streetcar system there and how he proposes to pay for it. Cincinnati and Columbus are just two in a growing number of cities nationwide seriously looking at transportation alternatives in light of skyrocketing gasoline prices.

For people who listen to pundits on TV and radio talk shows discuss the fuel crisis, they might notice the frequent mention of the term "peak oil." The phrase typically is uttered in a context that implies it means the moment when oil supplies are beginning to run out, but that's not the case.

In fact, a nonprofit group that encourages better energy management says the misperception is done deliberately by some people — mostly those sympathetic to the oil industry — as a way to discredit the movement to explore alternatives to our culture’s dependence on fossil fuels.

Steve Andrews and Randy Udall, writing on the Web site of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO), state that the tactic is designed to mislead citizens.

“Peak oil is about peak flow. It’s that simple, despite all those lame statements (some from people who ought to know better) that ‘we aren’t running out.’ That’s right, we aren't, but who said we were?” the pair write. “‘Running out’ is a framing technique used with some success to belittle the legitimate peak oil concern.

“Peak oil describes the maximum flow rate of oil from a well, an off-shore platform, a field, a basin, or a geographic area — state, nation, continent and eventually the world. When the USA hit its peak in October 1970, the record went unnoticed. Today, more than 50 nations have peaked, including Mexico and, it now appears, Russia. During the next few years the world will hit peak oil; it could be a sharp summit preluding a steep fall or perhaps a gentle bump on a long plateau.”

ASPO is a non-partisan organization that supports efforts for dealing with depleting petroleum resources.

Oil production is declining in six top oil-producing nations: the United States, Indonesia, the United Kingdom, Norway, Mexico and Venezuela. Also, production is either flat or subject to volatile production rules in Russia, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Algeria.

According to Andrews and Udall, oil production is increasing in the remaining nine top producing nations, but China is nearing its peak level. Additionally, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates aren’t planning much more expansion, and Canada and Libya have limited growth potential.

Only Brazil, Kazakhstan and Angola seem poised to increase production sufficiently to make a difference past 2010, the pair add.

With these facts in mind, perhaps it’s time that U.S. society begin preparing about how to accommodate the shift.

— Kevin Osborne

Comments

[Oil addict]

Grease cars are the way to go. Electric cars use dirty coal and cause global warming. Just because the pollution isn't coming out of a tail pipe doesn't mean it isn't produced elsewhere.

[David E. Gallaher]

"With these facts in mind, perhaps it’s time that U.S. society begin preparing about how to accommodate the shift."

Prices are the best way for societies to accomodate shifts.
The more politicians try to accomodate shifts, the more disasters like ethanol.

And keep in mind: "Peak oil" will come much later if John McCain doesn't become President and "Bomb, bomb, bomb... bomb, bomb Iran."